Oh boy, how good is this season going to be. Just what united needed.

This guys looks exactly what MU need and fits Vickerman's playbook perfectly. With this addition I'm picking MU top 4 and ahead of everyone except Sixers and Kings

a shame that only 6 teams can make the post-season this year, almost every single one of them has a damn good case to be there

could be like what we're gonna see in the AFL this season where one excellent team is very unlucky to miss out

How has the NBL been able to afford two high quality big guys from Europe? Jesse Edwards (from Holland) and Vrenz Bleijenbergh (Belgium).

Stylistically Edwards is in in that Lee/Hukporti/Boone mould

A traditional 5 man but can run the lane and throw down lobs

Overall United's roster has downgraded from last year, while the league overall looks stronger.

United is relatively bereft of star power, and will rely heavily on a 37 year old CG43 and Milton Doyle who struggled last year, and whose trajectory in both NBL and Puerto Rico makes me wonder whether he's just losing a step, at almost 32. Not everyone ages as well as Goulding has.

In the NBL, having a 1 man and a 5 man getting their first taste of FIBA basketball and their 2nd pro season doesn't feel like a recipe for success.

A challenge for Vickerman to (again) prove why he's so highly regarded

United were shown up in the finals last year by a younger, hungrier, more athletic team. They've typically leaned towards bringing in older, experienced guys like Newley, Anderson, Loe, Pledger, etc. so I'm happy for them to take a gamble on some young legs for once.

I lie - Edwards has played for the Dutch national team

12ppg
7.5rpg
2bpg

in the g-league last season

At mid 60%s for FG. He might be a foul target with 50% FT though!

I really hope the nbl refs make an adjustment and let's the bigs play. That and clamp down on the theatrics and kicking out by guards. It got out of hand last season

United only has 4 players from last season but their strengths and weaknesses are similar

Strengths
Depth - plenty of capable players off the bench. Vickerman will use 10 by quarter time and grind teams down over 40 minutes

Experience- Older team. Yes, Daniels and two young imports. But most of this group has been around NBL/FIBA bball a long time. People who buy into team ethos.

Familiarity- Vickerman, CG, Ili a coach/captain/point guard trio who've been with United forever. That, combined with the home game heavy early schedule, provides an opportunity for a head-start vs other teams with less familiar groups.

Defense- Walker and Edwards won defensive awards in college. United will again be defensively strong.

Weaknesses

Size and rebounding- Edwards is a big boy but otherwise its a midget team. 5'11 Edwards, 3 guard line-up, no one else over 6'8 on the main roster. And they've lost Jack White who was 3rd in NBL in rebounding last year.

Lack of elite scoring options-When the game is on the line, who's winning it for them? Who's taking a game over down the stretch? In the grind of a 3 or 5 game series where the other team knows you back to front, who keeps finding ways to keep the scoreboard ticking over? CG who's 37 in October, Doyle who shot 36% from the field over 64 games last season in Aus and Puerto Rico averaging 14.7ppg, and Walker averaged 14.3ppg in G League (at a touch under 40%) which isn't known for defense.

This is exactly what I said 12 months ago (and I was very nearly wrong), but I can see United making semi-finals or even sneaking into the Grand Final, if things go well. But it's hard to see them winning it.

There's a lot to like, they're a deep, veteran team with a quality coach. But ultimately I predict they'll lack some X-factor, they'll lack an elite stud, lack enough scoring, and they'll come up short in their bid for redemption.

5'11 Walker I meant

In fact, 12 months ago I predicted they'd finish 3-6. I didn't even think they were much chance of making the GF

They proved me wrong.

Ultimately, this early in the off-season we're all guessing and just waiting in anticipation. It's an exciting time of year

If Edwards patrols the paint and plays at All-NBL 1st or 2nd team level (which seems unlikely in a league with McGee, Harrell, Magnay, JLA and Harrison... but you never know) then United should look pretty good.

CG43 may be 37 but he also pulled out arguably his best season ever last year

And he was elite in NBL24 as well

Goulding had some HUGE games but from memory slowed down a bit after doing his calf I think. And these soft tissue injuries tend to continue for guys his age. Either way he has ability to be unstoppable offensively. Would benefit from just being a catch and shoot guys feeding on teammates driving rather than running around coming off a dozen screens, that stop and rapid acceleration not good for him at his age.
Could say Doyle had a down year but was basically playing with Tassies development team half the season so would have been a focal point for opposition defences. So as mentioned he could thrive taking the ball to the basket if players stay at home with Goulding, or it's an easy assist if they help. And sounds like he now has a decent lob threat at centre.
United really have to reinvent themselves with all the departures. I expect the ball to be more in Doyle's hands than Ilis like the last few seasons. Delaney's a big body and works hard but last time seemed like age was catching up with him as well. Although White got the yips in the finals he really controlled the boards and often gave them second chances.
Clarke was a sniper off the bench, can a rookie Daniels approach that production being so young even with the hype. Even though Adelaide would have outbid them, this would have been a good opportunity for Cameron to have a breakout year, was the Daniels signing the nail in the coffin?
Been the best in terms of consistent winning the last few years despite dropping the last couple of finals series, has LKs apparent stepping away from them the reason they look a lot more vulnerable. Too old at some spots and too young at others, Goulding a tweak away from a month on the sidelines and Ili a head bump from 2 months.
Expect them to hover around the playing, injuries and they go way down, fountain of youth and they're top 4 again.
Best indicator would be how Doyle goes.

He's aging like a fine wine, which is awesome. Many of the great shoooters played till 39, 40 (Gaze, Heal, CJ Bruton, Penney, Copeland, etc) and he might do likewise

But for United, I just think they need more than him, Doyle and Walker as primary creating and scoring options.

Best case scenario is CG has yet another stellar year like last year, Doyle plays like 22-23, and Walker turns out a stud. I'd love to see that, but don't think it's likely.

Edwards currently with Netherlands National team playing World Cup qualifiers

Final game August 21

So won't be in Melbourne for a while.

Imports usually get the first couple of weeks of training camp off anyway.

I think Melb will probably make the Top 6 but just can't see this team getting to the GF. Just too many quality outs, Goulding another year older and Doyle not the player he was.

Back: Goulding, Ili, Krebs, Bowen, Machar

In: Doyle*, Edwards*, Walker*, Delany, Daniels, Krslovic, Wilson, Tata

Out: Clark*, Lee*, Dellavedova, White, Cameron, Loe, Aliir

Red flag alert

Edwards fouled out in 9 minutes in his latest game for Netherlands in the pre-qualifiers (which can be viewed on YouTube)

Had closer look at stats.

This guy has big foul numbers. Across his NCAA and G-League career.

Given Vickerman teaches aggressive defense, and his teams often exceed league average foul counts, and given the foul issues Lee and Loe had last year, it seems less-than-ideal bringing in a guy you already know is foul prone.

Well at 7'0" there was always going to be something wrong with him that Japan & the European leagues passed on him.

Re-signing Marcus Lee would've been a safer bet, despite his limitations. However the Kings were keen on Lee but signed Soares instead because he was cheaper so maybe Lee's priced himself out now.

Looking at Melb's team compared to last season and it really does look like some level of money has been pulled out. Just looks odd to see a seemingly cheap United roster.

Roster changes vs NBL25


Downgrades:

Delaney for White- Big downgrade.

White was United's MVP pre-FIBA break, before his injury. He slowed thereafter but still a key reason they made the GF. Got the yips from the line in the playoffs, but finished 3rd in NBL in rebounding, played good defense, provided versatility by occasionally stepping to the 5 spot in small-ball lineups, and being able to defend anyone, and helped United's transition game.

Delaney was last seen in the NBL in 2022 where he was underwhelming, subsequently averaging moderate stats in Europe and last year playing Japanese division 2.


Krslovic for Loe - Downgrade

Loe had a career year, and during the regular season I believe he was United's 3rd leading scorer on a per-minute basis behind Goulding and Clark (He may have even outscored Clark, I'd need to check). His floor stretching ability was his special sauce. Only 34% but always putting them up, always keeping the defense moving.

Krslovic is another Kyle Bowen - a trusty workhorse who specialises in the one percenters. But he's unlikely to match Loe's impact from last year.


Walker for Delly - Hard to predict, likely slight downgrade.

First FIBA gig for Walker, who makes United's small team even smaller but adds extra pace.


Daniels & Wilson for Cameron - downgrade.

Cameron stepped up whenever required. In 7 games where he played 18 minutes or more, he averaged 15ppg in 23mpg.

17 year old Daniels is a project player who will bring athletic defense but unlikely to trouble the scoreboard too much.


Existing players - downgrade

Goulding, Ili, Krebs and Bowen a year older. Likely cumulative decline to some degree.



Upgrades:

Doyle for Clark - Likely slight upgrade.

Doyle brings more all-court game, superior defense and rebounding. Although a less efficient scorer.


Edwards for Lee - Hard to predict, hopefully slight upgrade.



Overall comments:

United is smaller than ever, by losing Loe and Delly and replacing them with much smaller guys, and losing White who's super athletic, defensively versatile and patrolled the glass with the best of them.

Scoring options have declined, losing Loe and Cameron's punch off the bench, replaced with players who aren't the same level of scoring threat. And Doyle who isn't as efficient as Clark.

The optimistic take is Walker and Edwards are 24/25 and still improving, and could surprise. Doyle might thrive in new scenery, bringing his A-game. And the team is younger, and their modified identity with increased pace might bring success.

Edwards foul stats

Summer League - 10 games, 16.6 minutes per game, 3.9 fouls per game

NCAA – 118 games, 22.6mpg, 2.6fpg.

G-League – 34 games, 25.1mpg, 3.3fpg. 24th overall in fouls per game, but 8th amongst players who played 20 games or more. And played less minutes than most above him, so would've been one of the top handful of fouls-per-minute.

And as mentioned, fouled out in 9 minutes this week for Netherlands national team.

Sheesh. I remember when Freddie Gillespie started with NZ, I did some analysis and he was one of the most foul prone guys I’ve ever seen. Edwards might be a challenger.

How’s Edwards going to go in the NBL, which plays at a high pace (albeit slower than G-League) but is known for calling fouls on big men, with higher intensity defense required than G-League?

whats the quickest foul out in NBL history?

think I've just found it- Chasson Randle in 5:15 minutes for NZ against Perth on 14/3/22

I'm already wondering if Vickerman will start Krslovic and bring him off the bench, to mitigate this issue somewhat.

That's some great analysis LV, thanks for sharing

Somehow I had forgotten white was leaving MU so the reliance on delany could be a problem i hadn't factored in.

But I think Doyle can offer more than he's being given credit for. Last season he was having to create and take a lot of pressured shots. I'm pretty confident with vickerman setting up a better offensive system that he can improve his output and efficiency

Still reckon they're top 4 at this stage